Eurocontrol Expecting 85% of Pre-Covid Traffic Levels this Year
Eurocontrol has released a short-term forecast, showing that 9.5 million flights are expected in the Network this year (85% of 2019 levels), despite the impact of the invasion of Ukraine and global economic challenges.
This traffic forecast, which covers the period until the end of 2024, updates the previous forecast prepared in October 2021. It is based on:
- recent European traffic trends (until April 2022),
- the latest available economic forecast (Oxford Economics, May 2022),
- a revision of the existing three scenarios accounting for COVID-19 impact and timing of recovery and the impact of Ukraine’s invasion by Russia;
- no re-opening of the routes currently closed because of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The Base scenario is considered as the most-likely scenario. For 2022, this scenario envisages about 9.5 million flights – corresponding to 85% of 2019. This is slightly below the level expected in the previous forecast publication for 2022 (89%) – largely as a result of the Omicron variant’s impact on the first quarter. It is now expected that the recovery to 2019 levels will take place during 2024, with the baseline scenario indicating 10.6 million flights in 2023, 5% down on 2019. However, there are still significant risks surrounding the forecast, not least as a result of rapidly-evolving events.
The Low scenario considers the impact of several downside risks, such as lingering/renewed effects of COVID-19 variants and economic risks (including high energy prices and a long term drop in people’s propensity to fly). In this scenario they expect the recovery to 2019 levels to be delayed until after 2027.
The traffic forecast shows wide variation between States, with some Southern Europe states already reaching their 2019 levels before the end of 2022. The invasion of Ukraine is having a limited impact at European level but the re-routings to avoid closed airspaces are affecting the number of overflights in various countries, notably Lithuania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia (fewer overflights); Armenia, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina (more overflights).
According to the data, Ireland has seen a 34% increase in overflights as a result of the war in Ukraine.
About the Author
Mark Dwyer Mark is an airline pilot flying the Boeing 737 for a major European airline. In addition he is also a Type Rating Instructor, Type Rating Examiner and Base Training Captain on the B737. Outside of commercial flying Mark enjoys flying light aircraft from the smallest 3 Axis microlights up to heavier singles. He is also an instructor and EASA Examiner on single engines and a UK CAA Examiner. He flies the Chipmunk for the Irish Historic Flight Foundation (IHFF). Mark became the Chairman of the National Microlight Association of Ireland (NMAI) in 2013 and has overseen a massive growth in the organisation. In this role he has worked at local and national levels. In 2015, Mark won ‘Upcoming Aviation Professional Award’ at the Aviation Industry Awards sponsored by the IAA. Mark launched this website back in 2002 while always managing the website, he has also been Editor and Deputy Editor of FlyingInIreland Magazine from 2005 to 2015.
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