Ryanair has trimmed its passenger target for the year ahead and is cutting back its winter schedule, as the carrier moves to limit its exposure to a sharp rise in unhedged jet fuel prices while warning that some less-hedged rivals may not make it through the winter at all.
The airline now expects to carry 214 million passengers in its 2027 financial year, down from a previous target of 216 million, after opting to pull capacity during the traditionally loss-making November-to-March period. Ryanair said the reduction should cut its winter losses by €70–100 million.
The decision follows a jump in jet fuel prices to around $140 a barrel, with oil briefly touching $97 a barrel amid US-Iran tensions. Ryanair has hedged roughly 80% of this financial year’s fuel needs at $67 a barrel, leaving the remaining fifth exposed to the current spike. “It is sensible to strategically reduce the group’s exposure to unhedged jet fuel during the unprofitable winter schedule,” the airline said.
The rebalancing sees Ryanair scaling back capacity at Dublin and Vienna and closing its Berlin base entirely, while adding flights in growth markets including Albania, Morocco, regional Italy, Slovakia and Sweden. The airline used the update to caution that competitors carrying less fuel hedging could be forced into their own capacity cuts, or worse, warning that if elevated oil prices persist into next summer, short-haul fares across the industry would “increase materially” as less-hedged rivals “struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this winter season.” Wizz Air, by contrast, has continued to chase growth, carrying 8.7 million passengers in August alone, up around 26% year on year.
The winter caution comes despite continued strength over the summer. Ryanair is targeting more than 5% passenger growth for the April-to-October period, from 138 million to 145 million, with August traffic up 6% to 22.2 million passengers and a 96% load factor.
