In the world of aviation, safety is paramount. Yet, even the most experienced pilots can fall prey to subtle psychological traps that compromise decision-making. One such trap is Plan Continuation Bias (PCB) – a cognitive bias that compels pilots to stick to their original flight plan despite emerging risks or changing conditions. The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), in its recent advisory memorandum (OAM No. 16), sheds light on this phenomenon, urging the General Aviation (GA) community to recognise and mitigate its dangers.
The origin of this OAM comes from the fatal accident involving Robinson R44 N999RL that occurred on 11th December 2022. In its final report, the Air Accident Investigation Unit (AAIU) concluded plan continuation bias was likely a factor when the flight was continued in meteorological conditions in which visual contact with the surface was deteriorating. In this context, they made one Safety Recommendation to the IAA to promulgate information on the effects of Plan Continuation Bias and on strategies to counter the effects of such biases, particularly in relation to General Aviation.
Understanding Plan Continuation Bias
Plan Continuation Bias, often colloquially referred to as “Get-there-itis,” is defined as an unconscious mindset where the desire to reach a destination overrides logic, sound judgment, and instinct. This bias becomes particularly dangerous as pilots near their destination, increasing the temptation to “push on” despite deteriorating weather, technical issues, or other red flags.
Research by NASA and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has revealed that PCB is frequently underreported in accident investigations. Similarly, the General Aviation Joint Safety Committee (GAJSC) has identified PCB as a significant contributor to Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accidents.
The Role of Human Factors
Human decision-making is inherently influenced by biases. In aviation, these biases can distort a pilot’s perception of risk and lead to poor choices. For instance, a pilot flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) may continue into worsening weather due to social or commercial pressures – such as meeting family, attending events, or fulfilling client expectations.
Past experiences can also mislead pilots. Successfully completing a risky flight in the past may create a false sense of confidence. Additionally, modern avionics and GPS systems can give pilots a misleading sense of security, encouraging them to fly into conditions beyond their qualifications.
Another compounding factor is confirmation bias – the tendency to interpret information in a way that supports one’s existing beliefs. A pilot might misidentify a ground feature as a navigation point while ignoring contradictory data like incorrect headings or timing.
Recognising the Warning Signs
The IAA outlines several indicators that a pilot may be falling into the PCB trap:
- Ignoring changing weather: Conditions may have shifted beyond the pilot’s capabilities or aircraft limitations.
- Rushing procedures: Skipping checklists or hurrying through pre-flight tasks can signal undue pressure.
- Emotional stress: Feelings of anxiety or irritability may indicate rising stress levels, which impair judgment.
- External pressure: Social or commercial obligations can subtly influence decisions, often without the pilot realising it.
Strategies to Mitigate Plan Continuation Bias
To counteract PCB, the IAA recommends a proactive and flexible approach to flight planning and in-flight decision-making:
- Have an alternative plan: Always prepare for contingencies such as weather changes, equipment failures, or airspace restrictions. A well-thought-out alternate plan makes it easier to adapt when needed.
- Don’t fixate: Regularly reassess the situation during flight. Ask yourself: Has the weather changed? Are fuel levels sufficient? Are conditions still within your limits?
- Know your Limits: Be honest about your experience, proficiency, and current physical or mental state. Fatigue and stress can cloud judgment.
- Recognise “Get-there-itis”: Ask critical questions like:
- Would I make the same decision if I weren’t so focused on arriving?
- Am I rushing?
- Are my decisions safe?
- What are my options to divert or change course?
At any point, take a moment to reassess – Pause, Evaluate, Decide – Recognise warning signs, evaluate your options, and make a decision that prioritises safety – even if it means abandoning the original plan.
Plan Continuation Bias is a silent but potent threat in aviation. By understanding its psychological roots and recognising its warning signs, pilots can make more informed, flexible, and ultimately safer decisions. The IAA’s advisory serves as a timely reminder that in aviation, the best decision is not always the one that gets you to your destination – it’s the one that gets you home safely.
Researchers at Dublin City University (DCU) are conducting research into PCB and its affects on pilots’ decision making. They’re looking for pilots to help with their research by completing this short questionnaire here.
The IAA Operations Advisory Memorandum is available to read here.
The Final AAIU Report into the Accident of N999RL is available to read here.
